BY CHRISTINA HERNANDEZ
It’s been more snowy than typical this winter on Long Island, although totals are likely to end up closer to annual averages than they have in the past few years, experts said yesterday.
But bundle up, because after a December of fluctuating temperatures, forecasters predict one of the most bitterly cold Januaries in recent memory.
Islip, for example, has already seen more than 10 inches of snow this season, which is relatively uncommon because greater snowfall usually comes later, experts said. The average December snowfall on Long Island is about 3 inches, weather officials said.
Because it’s surrounded by ocean, it’s not uncommon for snow levels on Long Island to vary greatly, experts said.
“We have seen a more active storm track this winter,” said Andy Snyder, a staff meteorologist at Weather Central in Madison, Wis., citing systems that cut from the Midwest to the Northeast, such as the storm that brought snow to Long Island yesterday.
But because Long Island usually averages about 20 to 30 inches of snow each winter, the season is on track to be more typical than last year, which saw only 8.8 inches between Dec. 20 and March 20, according to Accu-Weather.
“It’s a normal winter,” said Victor Cassella, a meteorologist in Port Jefferson Station. “This is what you should expect.”
But that could change this week when temperatures are expected to turn even more bitter, dropping to as low as 9 degrees on Wednesday. An arctic blast of low pressure is expected to move south from Canada, Snyder said. The frigid weather might linger.
“The rest of this month looks extremely cold,” Snyder said, “colder than anything we’ve seen in the last several winters and, in some cases [in the Northeast], in the last 10 years.”
Long-term precipitation is tougher to predict, though the National Weather Service estimates that it will be normal this month, Snyder said. For next month and into the spring, he said, the service is predicting average temperatures and precipitation levels.
The warming effects of La Niña left Long Island with relatively low levels of snow over the past few years, experts said. But this season, thanks to big temperature swings, snowfall has been more frequent.
Though December temperatures averaged about the typical 36 degrees, they included several days of extreme highs and lows, Snyder said. For example, on Dec. 8, a record low temperature was set in Islip at 18 degrees. Just four days later, on Dec. 12, Islip had another record – 60 degrees.
Such fluctuations are created by active winter storm systems that bring unseasonable warmth followed by colder air, Snyder said. Those extremes also lead to greater precipitation.
Recent temperatures have been ideal for snowfall, said Bob Oravec, lead forecaster at the National Weather Service in Maryland. Very cold weather often means the air is too dry to produce precipitation. When it’s too warm, rain replaces snow.
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