Monthly Archives: December 2008

Mega-orgy in Tel Aviv cancelled due to public pressure

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The Raelian swastika/hexagram logo

Sex fest scheduled to be held on ‘International Orgasm Day’ and seeking to promote world peace called off after owner of venue meant to host event caves in to threats

Ynet | Dec 24, 2008
By Yoav Zaitun

After weeks of preparations for the largest sex event of its kind in Israel, organizers were forced to cancel it this week due to public pressure and threats exerted on the owner of the venue where the sex fest was to take place.

The event in question, which was scheduled to take place on “International Orgasm Day,” aimed to bring together some 250 participants seeking to promote world peace through multiple orgasms reached by masturbation or sex.

The orgy was organized by the Raelian movement, a UFO religion whose followers believe humankind was created by aliens. The group’s spokesman, Kobi Drori, said that the orgy was meant to include straights, gays, lesbians and bisexuals, all of them over 18.

“The purpose of the event was to try and bring world peace through mass orgasm, this by experiencing consensual sex and natural, uninterrupted pleasure. It was important to make love without feeling guilty or shy,” he explained.

Drori protested the fact that nowadays the words “war,” “violence” and “murder” have become more legitimate than “sex,” “orgasm” and “pleasure.”

“It should be the other way around. Several years ago an Iraqi boy whose limbs were amputated was shown on TV and everybody treated this as if it was okay, but when Janet Jackson exposed her breast during the Superbowl the American nation was appalled.

“We wanted to put into practice the saying ‘make love, not war’.”

‘Society based on self-fulfillment’

According to Drori, the orgy was just the first in a series of events dedicated to promoting this objective. On January 22 the movement will hold a conference on sexuality and masturbation with experts and writers in the field.

He also vowed that the cancelation of this year’s orgy would not deter the Raelians from setting up another sex fest next year.

The Raelian movement has several hundreds followers in Israel and some 70,000 members worldwide.

“We don’t believe in demons, ghosts and gods,” said Drori. “The group’s primary goal is to inform humanity, without attempting to persuade, regarding scientific messages that deal with the origins of life on earth.

“The second goal is to expedite the establishment of a society based on the principles of non-violence, solidarity, self-fulfillment and pleasure. To establish one global currency, one global government and harness science to the service of humanity, and not against humanity,” he concluded.

Scientist warns of loss of human touch due to overdependence on robots

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Entertainment and Showbiz | Dec 25, 2008

A leading British scientist has called for international guidelines to be set up for the ethical and safe application of robots – before it’s too late.

Professor Noel Sharkey, of the University of Sheffield, raises concerns over the use of robots in care services, including child minding and care of the elderly.

Sharkey urges his fellow scientists and engineers working in robotics to be mindful of the unanticipated risks and the ethical problems linked to their work.

He believes that robots for care represent just one of many ethically problematic areas that will soon arise from the increase in their use, and that policy guidelines for ethical and safe application need to be set before the guidelines set themselves.

“Research into service robots has demonstrated close bonding and attachment by children, who, in most cases, prefer a robot to a teddy bear. Short-term exposure can provide an enjoyable and entertaining experience that creates interest and curiosity,” he said.

“However, because of the physical safety that robot minders provide, children could be left without human contact for many hours a day or perhaps for several days, and the possible
psychological impact of the varying degrees of social isolation on development is unknown.

“At the other end of the age spectrum, the relative increase in many countries in the population of the elderly relative to available younger caregivers has spurred the development of elder-care robots. These robots can help the elderly to maintain independence in their own homes, but their presence could lead to the risk of leaving the elderly in the exclusive care of machines without sufficient human contact,” he added.

The report is published in the prestigious Science journal.

Elements of an Inside Job in Mumbai Attacks

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OpEd News | Dec 27, 2008

by Jeremy R. Hammond

Indian police last week arrested Hassan Ali Khan, who was wanted for investigations into money laundering and other illicit activities, and who is also said to have ties to Dawood Ibrahim, the underworld kingpin who evidence indicates was the mastermind behind the terrorist attacks in Mumbai last month.

Ibrahim is also alleged to have close ties with both Pakistan’s Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) agency and the CIA.

Another character linked to the CIA whose name is now beginning to figure into the web of connections between the Mumbai attacks, criminal organizations, and intelligence agencies is Saudi arms dealer Adnan Khashoggi, of Iran-Contra infamy. Khashoggi has been implicated in arms deals with drug traffickers and terrorist groups, including within India.

Dawood Ibrahim is a known major drug trafficker whom India claims is being protected by Pakistan. As Foreign Policy Journal previously reported, there are also some indications that the CIA has a similar interest in preventing Ibrahim from being handed over to India. Ibrahim is wanted by India for the recent Mumbai attacks as well as for bombings that occurred there in 1993.

Ibrahim is a native of India who rose through the ranks of the criminal underworld in Bombay (now Mumbai). According to media reports in India, he got his start as an undercover informant for the police at a young age and thus has an intimate knowledge of Indian law enforcement and intelligence, and is alleged to have fostered close ties with individuals within the political system.

Another known associate of Ibrahim’s in Mumbai, Mohammed Ali, is suspected of assisting the terrorists, who were met by an individual in Uran before continuing on to Mumbai, where inflatable rubber dinghies had been arranged to take them ashore by the same individual. Numerous earlier press accounts indicated that the dinghies, along with other logistical assistance, were provided by an associate of Ibrahim’s.

The Times of India, for instance, reported on November 28 that according to police sources the Mumbai attack “was enabled by the Dawood Ibrahim gang”, and that “It would not have been possible to carry out a terror operation on this scale without a collaborative local network and this was provided by the D Gang. As the terrorists had entered via the sea, the needle of suspicion is clearly pointing at Mohammed Ali, the new poinstman of Dawood.”

Yet Indian news reports indicate that officials have been slow to act against Hassan Ali Khan, and Mohammed Ali continues smuggling operations out of Mumbai for Ibrahim’s crime syndicate, D-Company, completely unmolested by Indian investigators and law enforcement.

As the November 28 Times of India article observed, Ali “is known to indulge in smuggling of diesel, petroleum, naptha, drugs and arms with impunity and it appears that the terrorists had used his networks to enter the city by the sea route…. Despite having a detailed dossier on him, the authorities have not taken any action against him. What is more worrying is that Ali is believed to have also penetrated naval intelligence.”

A further report from the Times of India on December 4 noted that Dawood Ibrahim is “sitting pretty in Karachi” under the protection of Pakistan and his “hawala channel between Mumbai and Karachi remains busy”. “But central agencies question why the Maharashtra government has not taken any action against the D-company here.”

“‘What’s the point of asking Islamabad to hand over Dawood when we’re not doing anything to destroy his empire in Mumbai and other places in India?’ a senior official asked.”

The article observed that Mohammed Ali “continues to operate with impunity.

Again, on December 11, Times of India reported that “Mumbai police has still not called Ali for questioning”, adding that “Ali is also known to have the backing of two powerful politicians of south Mumbai and that could be the reason why he is still untouched.”

In addition to links to Ibrahim, both men are also alleged, like Ibrahim himself, to have ties to political officials in India, and there are numerous other indications emerging that the attacks were assisted by elements within India being protected by the political establishment.

Full Story

Laura Bush: Shoe-throwing incident sign of ‘freer’ Iraq

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Reuters | Dec 28th, 2008

By JoAnne Allen

The video of an agile U.S. President George W. Bush ducking two shoes thrown at him during a news conference in Baghdad has been fodder for jokes on late-night television and a big hit on the Internet.

Even Bush laughed off the Dec. 14 incident. But his wife was not amused by an Iraqi journalibush-and-laura1st who threw his shoes at Bush, narrowly missing the president.

“It was an assault,” Laura Bush said in a Fox news interview broadcast on Sunday. “And I think it should be treated that way.”

Iraqi TV reporter Muntazer al-Zaidi was tackled to the floor and arrested, and his lawyer said he was severely beaten in detention. He is to stand trial on Dec. 31 on charges of “assaulting a foreign head of state visiting Iraq,” a spokesman for Iraq’s High Judicial Council said.

But Zaidi has become a hero to Sunnis and Shi’ites alike, and clerics on both sides are demanding that he freed.

Asked about demands for the reporter’s release, Laura Bush said that whatever happens with Zaidi is up to the Iraqis.

“But I know that if Saddam Hussein had been there, the man wouldn’t have been released. And he probably … you know, would have been executed,” she said. “As bad as the incident is, in my view, it is a sign that Iraqis feel a lot freer to express themselves.”

Many Iraqis blame Bush personally for the tens of thousands who have died in violence since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that ousted Saddam.

The Bektashi Begat the Shriners?

“[The Bektashi] are even said to be affiliated to some of the French Masonic Lodges. One thing is certain; the order now consists almost exclusively of gentlemen of education, belonging to the Liberal, or Young Turk party.”

– Richard Davey, The Sultan and His Subjects [1897] (Gorgias Press LLC, 2001), p. 65.

Conspiracy Archive | Dec 23, 2008

fleming_florence_shrinerI’m not that familiar with the Bektashi Order , but it turns out that this politico-mystical secret society – directly or indirectly – was the inspiration behind the Ancient Arabic Order of Nobles of the Mystic Shrine.

Freemasons Dr. Walter M. Fleming, 33°, and William J. Florence, 32°, founded the Shriners in 1870. And in recounting the origins of their Order, Florence and Fleming corroborate the above statement by Richard Davey.

While in Marseilles, France, because he was known to be a Mason, Florence was invited to an exoteric ceremony at a Bokhara Shrine. Soon after, he visited Algiers, and there too was permitted to witness other proceedings in a Bokhara Temple.

Full Article

Queen Elizabeth gags her royal servants

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Sify.com | Dec 29, 2008

London: Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II has banned staff from revealing details of their work in a bid to prevent further embarrassing leaks of the goings-on in the royal household, according to reports on Sunday.

More than 200 butlers, cooks and general and cleaning staff are to sign confidentiality contracts by which they could lose their jobs for discussing any aspect of the royal household even with their own families, The News of the World reported.

Not to be missed: Sify Yearender 2008

Employees would also be required to return any royal souvenirs, letters, gifts and their personal diaries once they leave the monarch’s service.

They would also not be allowed to keep harmless “thank you” notes from royals or Christmas gift tags, the newspaper said.

The report quoted a palace employee as saying: “We will fight this. It’s like working for M15,” a reference to the British intelligence service.

Images: The weirdest happenings of 2008

The gagging order follows incidents involving former palace employees, including the late Princess Diana’s butler Paul Burrell, who have embarrassed the palace and enriched themselves through the sale of royal memorabilia and secrets.

Dawn of the robots

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The future of robotics?: Humanoid machines with the ability to express genuine emotions. Credit: Blutgruppe/Zefa/Corbis

They’re already here – driving cars, vacuuming carpets and feeding hospital patients. They may not be walking, talking, human-like sentient beings, but they sure are clever… and a little creepy.

Cosmos Magazine | Dec 28, 2008

AT FIRST SIGHT, IT LOOKED LIKE a typical suburban road accident. A Land Rover approached a Chevy Tahoe estate car that had stopped at a kerb; the Land Rover pulled out and tried to pass the Tahoe just as it started off again. There was a crack of fenders and the sound of paintwork being scraped, the kind of minor mishap that occurs on roads thousands of times every day.

Normally drivers get out, gesticulate, exchange insurance details and then drive off. But not on this occasion. No one got out of the cars for the simple reason that they had no humans inside them: the Tahoe and Land Rover were being controlled by computers competing in last November’s DARPA (the U.S. Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency) Urban Challenge. To take part, teams had to enter robot cars that could navigate through city streets and cope with numerous road hazards created for the competition in the former George Air Force Base in Victorville, California, United States.

The idea that machines could perform to such standards is startling. Driving is a complex task that takes humans a long time to perfect. Yet here were a bunch of jumped-up laptops controlling cars like veteran chauffeurs.

Even more striking was the fact that the collision between the robot Land Rover, built by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and the Tahoe, fitted out by Cornell University AI experts, was the only scrape in the entire competition. Yet only three years earlier, at DARPA’s first driverless car race, every robot competitor – directed to navigate across a stretch of open desert – either crashed or seized up before getting near the finishing line. At the following year’s race, six robot cars completed the course.

So DARPA, which is responsible for developing new technology for the U.S. military, moved the goalposts from the desert to the city for its next, far more exacting, competition in 2007: the urban challenge. A total of 83 robot cars, fitted with complex video- and radar-guidance systems, competed for the US$2 million (A$2.2 million) prize.

Each had its on-board computer loaded with a digital map and route plans, and was instructed to negotiate busy roads (some cars were driven by human volunteers, others by robots); differentiate between pedestrians and stationary objects; determine whether other vehicles were parked or moving off; and various parking manoeuvres (which robots turn out to be unexpectedly adept at).

Six of the 83 cars completed the 100 km course. So in three years, robot cars that could not even cross flat empty land progressed to being able to handle the horrors of city traffic.

It is a remarkable transition that has clear implications for the car of the future. More importantly, it demonstrates how robotics sciences and AI have progressed in the past few years – a point stressed by Bill Gates, the Microsoft boss who is almost a Messianic convert to these causes.

“The robotics industry is developing in much the same way the computer business did 30 years ago,” he argues. As he points out, robotic arms help perform simple surgery today; domestic robots vacuum floors; while electronics companies make toys that mimic pets and children with increasing sophistication.

“I can envision a future in which robotic devices will become a nearly ubiquitous part of our day-to-day lives,” says Gates. “We may be on the verge of a new era, when the PC will get up off the desktop and allow us to see, hear, touch and manipulate objects in places where we are not physically present.”

Intelligent machines are already making a considerable impact in everyday life. One job in 10 in the car industry is done by a robot, while in Iraq, U.S. forces employ 4,000 robots to help defuse bombs, fly drones over enemy lines and carry out other dangerous work. U.S. military chiefs have now decreed that a third of ground vehicles will be driverless by 2015.

The worlds of writers such as American sci-fi luminary Isaac Asimov, who envisaged robots as clever, compassionate companions, may soon be upon us. Not everyone relishes the prospect. Machines could just as easily turn against their creators, as seen in movies such as The Matrix, Westworld or The Stepford Wives, in which humans are enslaved, killed or replaced by robots.

But are we really likely to be hunted down by The Terminator robots or pursued by androids like those in Ridley Scott’s Blade Runner? Or will our lives be easier thanks to servile Star Wars droids like C-3P0 and R2- D2? Is the robot envisaged in science fiction realistic at all?

Today’s robot cars look impressive but they fall a long way short of the intelligence of HAL, the brilliant but malfunctioning supercomputer in Arthur C. Clarke’s 2001: A Space Odyssey. What is the potential for robots and computers in the near future?

“The fact is we still have a way to go before real robots catch up with their science fiction counterparts,” Gates says.

So what are the stumbling blocks? One key difficulty is getting robots to know their place. This has nothing to do with class or etiquette, but concerns the simple issue of positioning. Humans orient themselves with other objects in a room very easily. Robots find the task almost impossible. “Even something as simple as telling the difference between an open door and a window can be tricky for a robot,” says Gates. This has, until recently, reduced robots to fairly static and cumbersome roles.

For a long time, researchers tried to get round the problem by attempting to recreate the visual processing that goes on in the human cortex. However, that challenge has proved to be singularly exacting and complex. So scientists have turned to simpler alternatives; the new generations of sensors that can identify smells, chemicals and acids; that measure temperature; and – most importantly – that use infrared beams and laser rangers to pinpoint objects. These are now providing robots with sensing arrays that can give them far clearer ideas of their orientation and position.

“We have become far more pragmatic in our work,” says Nello Cristianini, professor of artificial intelligence at the University of Bristol in England and associate editor of the Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research. “We are no longer trying to recreate human functions. Instead we are looking for simpler solutions, with basic electronic sensors, for example.”

This approach is exemplified by vacuuming robots such as the Electrolux Trilobite. The Trilobite scuttles around homes pinging out ultrasound signals to create maps of rooms, which are remembered for future cleaning. Technology like this is now changing the face of robotics, says philosopher Ron Chrisley, director of the Centre for Research in Cognitive Science at the University of Sussex in England. “Sensors allow us to take the bottom-up approach to making robots.

Artificial intelligence experts spent a long time trying to build machines like a robot butler that would understand its owner’s needs or a robot that had a complex visual cortex. Now we have found that a more fruitful path is to build simple domestic machines, like robo-vacuum cleaners. Then we can work up from there.

“Robots first learn basic competence – how to move around a house without bumping into things. Then we can think about teaching them how to interact with humans,” he said.

Last year, a new Hong Kong restaurant, Robot Kitchen, opened with a couple of sensor-laden humanoid machines directing customers to their seats. Each possesses a touch-screen on which orders can be keyed in. The robot then returns with the correct dishes. In Japan, University of Tokyo researchers recently unveiled a kitchen ‘android’ that could wash dishes, pour tea and make a few limited meals.

The ultimate aim is to provide robot home helpers for the sick and the elderly, a key concern in a country like Japan where 22 per cent of the population is 65 or older. Over US$1 billion year is spent on research into robots that will be able to care for the elderly.

One of the first fruits of endeavours such as these is the My Spoon robot created by Secom, a small and innovative Japanese security company. My Spoon can feed disabled or incapacitated people by breaking up food and spooning it into their mouths. Then there’s Paro, a Japanese autonomous robot that looks like a baby harp seal, expresses feelings, moves its head and legs and responds to elderly patients who give it a cuddle, while surreptitiously monitoring their heart rate and other parameters for symptoms of stroke and heart attack.

Machines such as these take researchers into the field of socialised robotics: how to make robots act in a way that does not scare or offend individuals. “We need to study how robots should approach people, how they should appear. That is going to be a key area for future research,” adds Chrisley.

The development of carer robots also suggests intelligent machines will soon have other advanced roles in hospitals and surgeries. Some will simply aid doctors by pinpointing tumours or lesions during operations, for example. Others will function in far subtler, more sophisticated ways. Dmitry Oleynikov, at the University of Nebraska Medical Centre in Omaha, USA, is developing miniature robots that will be inserted inside abdominal cavities to assist in surgery. At the same time, researchers at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA, are working on the HeartLander, a ‘caterpillar’ robot that enters the chest through an incision and then moves about to administer treatments.

Others envisage a future in which ‘snake-arm robots’ will weave their way around the human body, equipped with lights, high-frequency cutters and sealers to administer treatment when required. “These are long, slender robot arms that don’t have elbows and can therefore ‘nose-follow’, like a snake, into confined spaces – for example, in the human body,” says Rob Buckingham, managing director of OC Robotics in Bristol, England, a company that is developing this technology.

Then there is the issue of computing power. A megahertz of computing power cost US$7,000 in 1970. Today it can be purchased for a few cents. Similarly, the price of data storage has plummeted, providing AI researchers with the processing power they need to tackle other problem areas – a key example being mobility.

At present a robot’s computer brain has to read data from each of its sensors, one after another, before it can work out its exact position. It is laborious and seriously limits speed. Increased computing power and development of multiple processors will allow these readings to be analysed simultaneously – while also pushing AI experts to design software that can deal with multiple data inputs.

This field is driven by the need to build complex automated robots that can work in hostile environments at speed: nuclear reactor repair vehicles, submersibles and rover vehicles for European and U.S. missions to Mars. Consider the current generation of Mars rovers. They move at a snail’s pace because they can only check, with painful slowness, the input from each of their sensors.

Future craft, such as Europe’s ExoMars project, will be designed to move much more quickly across the planet’s surface in their search for life, and will require considerable use of multiple processing computing. Similarly, missions to the moons of Jupiter, such as Europa – where ice-covered seas may harbour underwater life forms – will require spacecraft to carry robot submersibles capable of even more rapid data processing.

Devices like these should be in operation in a decade or so. By then, robots will also be helping to care for the elderly, playing important roles in surgical operations, controlling our cars and replacing soldiers in the battlefield. This still leaves us some way short of the intelligent machines envisaged by Clarke or Asimov, however – a point acknowledged by Ronald Arkin, a robotics expert who is director of the Mobile Robot Laboratory at Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, USA.

“It is almost impossible to predict when machines will become as clever as humans,” he says. “That will depend on breakthroughs that still have to take place, and given that research in AI progresses in fits and starts, it is impossible to predict timescales accurately.”

According to Arkin, two major areas of research need to be addressed before computers acquire the intelligence of humans: vision and the processing of information as it flows through the human cortex. “We will not create the artificial equivalent of human intelligence until we understand these issues,” he says.

“That requires breakthroughs in brain research that have yet to be made, although work in magnetic resonance imaging holds great promise,” he adds. “Researchers can now watch areas of the brain light up as individuals carry out specific mental tasks. When we have that knowledge, we can pass it on to computers.”

Most researchers say it will take several decades to achieve that goal. However futurologist and computer expert Ray Kurzweil believes artificial intelligence could be on par with human intellect by the 2020s. After that, machine intelligence would outstrip that of the human brain as computers and robots learn to communicate, teach and replicate among themselves. “Once non-biological intelligence matches the range and subtlety of human intelligence, it will soar past it because of the acceleration of information-based technologies and the ability of machines to instantly share their knowledge,” Kurzweil says. In short, humanity will become just the means to a technological end.

The prognosis for humanity in such a world would not seem to be too healthy. “It certainly suggests there is a good case for ensuring these machines are programmed to the right ethical standards,” adds Arkin.

Most researchers believe such a prognosis is remote, particularly given current rates of research and development. On the other hand, we should not despair of machines showing any intelligence at all in the near future.

“Look at Google or Amazon,” says Cristianini. “Both display the attributes of intelligence. For example, Amazon is designed to recommend books to users based on the preferences of other people and to suggest works about which its creators could have known nothing. That is intelligence. So, in a sense, AI is with us already.”

Russian Professor: America ‘Disintegrates’ in 2010

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In Moscow, Igor Panarin’s Forecasts Are All the Rage; America ‘Disintegrates’ in 2010

Wall Street Journal | Dec 29, 2008

Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

By ANDREW OSBORN

MOSCOW — For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument — that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. — very seriously. Now he’s found an eager audience: Russian state media.

In recent weeks, he’s been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. “It’s a record,” says Prof. Panarin. “But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger.”

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it’s his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin’s views also fit neatly with the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.

“There’s a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur,” he says. “One could rejoice in that process,” he adds, poker-faced. “But if we’re talking reasonably, it’s not the best scenario — for Russia.” Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces — with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin’s ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country’s top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin’s English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.

Mr. Panarin’s apocalyptic vision “reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today,” says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. “It’s much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union.”

Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin’s predictions. “Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people,” says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin’s theories don’t hold water.

Mr. Panarin’s résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB’s successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.

The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are “classified.”

In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.

“When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise,” he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. “They didn’t believe me.”

At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls “The Californian Republic,” and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of “The Texas Republic,” a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an “Atlantic America” that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls “The Central North American Republic.” Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

“It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time.” A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. “It’s not there for no reason,” he says with a sly grin.

Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia’s biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt “a pyramid scheme,” and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington’s role as a global financial regulator.

Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama “can work miracles,” he wrote. “But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles.”

The article prompted a question about the White House’s reaction to Prof. Panarin’s forecast at a December news conference. “I’ll have to decline to comment,” spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.

For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino’s response was significant. “The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully,” he says.

The professor says he’s convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union — 15 years beforehand. “When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him,” says Prof. Panarin.

Walking in the countryside is good for the brain as well as the body

Telegraph | Dec 26, 2008

By Louise Gray

Now scientists have shown that “interacting with nature”, even in the middle of winter, boosts memory and concentration levels.

In fact, just an hour strolling through countryside increases the brain’s performance by a fifth.

In contrast a walk through busy streets, perhaps shopping for sales bargains, has no improving effect on the brain at all.

The research was carried out at the University of Michigan. One group was sent out on a 50-minute walk through streets lined with office buildings and busy with traffic while the other took a secluded, tree-lined route.

Afterwards the volunteers’ mental skills were assessed in a series of tests, and compared to their performance before setting off on the walks. Results showed that those who took the “nature route” improved their short-term memory by 20 per cent. There were no improvements after walking down city streets.

It is thought that the countryside is “restorative” because it allows people to switch off, while walking in towns and cities requires attention.

Marc Berman, a researcher at the University of Michigan, suggested a dose of nature can help cure mental fatigue.

“I would highly recommend going away for a little break in the country or simply going for a walk in a park in a town,” he said. “Our research has shown that this really is not subjective – the effects on memory and attention are real.”

The research, published in the journal Psychological Science, also found memory and attention improved after simply looking at pictures of nature rather than photos of built-up areas.

Mr Berman added: “Interacting with nature can have similar effects as meditating. You don’t hear people say, ‘Well, I got really tired out looking at this beautiful waterfall’. Nature does not make any demands of you.'”

Pentagon prepares to restore order to economic unrest

The report suggests the new (Barack Obama) administration could face a “strategic shock” within the first eight months in office.

Study: DoD May Act On US Civil Unrest

McClatchy | Dec 29, 2008

A U.S. Army War College report warns an economic crisis in the United States could lead to massive civil unrest and the need to call on the military to restore order.

Retired Army Lt. Col. Nathan Freir wrote the report “Known Unknowns: Unconventional Strategic Shocks in Defense Strategy Development,” which the Army think tank in Carlisle, Pa., recently released.

“Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities … to defend basic domestic order and human security,” the report said, in case of “unforeseen economic collapse,” “pervasive public health emergencies,” and “catastrophic natural and human disasters,” among other possible crises.

The report also suggests the new (Barack Obama) administration could face a “strategic shock” within the first eight months in office.

Fort Bliss spokeswoman Jean Offutt said the Army post is not involved in any recent talks about a potential military response to civil unrest.

The report become a hot Internet item after Phoenix police told the Phoenix Business Journal they’re prepared to deal with such an event, and the International Monetary Fund’s managing director, Dominique Strauss-Khan, said social unrest could spread to advanced countries if the global economic crisis worsens.

Javier Sambrano, spokes-man for the El Paso Police Department, said city police have trained for years so they can address any contingency, but not with the military.

“The police (department) trains on an ongoing basis as part of its Mobile Field Force Training,” Sambrano said. “As a result, the police will be able to respond to emergency situations, such as looting or a big civil unrest. The police (department) does not train with Soldiers.”

Earlier this year, Pentagon officials said as many as 20,000 Soldiers under the U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) will be trained within the next three years to work with civilian law enforcement in homeland security.

Joint Task Force-North, a joint command at Biggs Army Airfield, which conducts surveillance and intelligence along the border, comes under NORTHCOM. No one was available at JTF-North to comment on the Army War College’s report. NORTHCOM was created after the 9-11 attacks to coordinate homeland security efforts.

Soldiers under the former Joint Task Force-6 (now JTF-North) supported the Border Patrol in El Paso with its drug-interdiction operations.

In case civilian authorities request help or become overwhelmed, El Paso has several National Guard and military reserve units that can be called on. In 1992, National Guard and active Marine and Army units were deployed to help police control riots and looting in Los Angeles.

Charles Boehmer, political science professor at the University of Texas at El Paso, was skeptical about the Army War College report.

“The military was not called out during the Great Depression, and I don’t think our economic problems are as bad as they were then,” he said. “The military always has contingency plans. It’s a think tank’s job to come up with scenarios, but that doesn’t mean it represents an active interest on the part of the (Pentagon).”