U.S., Russia: A Mysterious Satellite Collision

Statistically speaking, the enormous scale of space makes the chance that this kind of direct collision would occur completely by accident infinitesimal.

Stratfor | Feb 12, 2009

A U.S. Iridium communications satellite and an old Russian communications relay satellite collided over Siberia on Feb. 10, according to reports that surfaced late Feb. 11. Nicholas Johnson, NASA’s chief scientist for orbital debris at the Johnson Space Center in Houston, and U.S. Air Force Brig. Gen. Michael Carey, deputy director of global operations with U.S. Strategic Command, have both confirmed the incident. Iridium Satellite LLC, which provides satellite phone service, has released a statement acknowledging the collision.

Multiple sources have now reported the collision. Some 600 pieces of debris are already being tracked from the event, which reportedly took place over northern Siberia at an altitude of 491 miles. This is well within the most popular band of low Earth orbit for satellites. The collision appears to have involved the Iridium 33 (NORAD ID 24946) communications satellite, launched in 1997, which had been reported by Iridium to be operational. The Russian craft was the Cosmos 2251 (NORAD ID 22675) communications relay satellite, launched in 1993 and widely reported to be nonoperational.

This is the first case in history of two satellites colliding. The orbital altitude where the collision took place is among the most crowded in low Earth orbit, but statistically speaking, the enormous scale of space makes the chance that this kind of direct collision would occur completely by accident infinitesimal.

This unlikelihood is compounded by the fact that the U.S. Air Force Space Surveillance Network provides space situational awareness and tracks some 18,000 satellites, orbital debris and other objects orbiting the earth. Though the network’s tracking of each of these objects is not constant, all objects of a certain size or larger are catalogued; potential collisions or near misses are generally spotted, and satellites can usually be maneuvered to avoid them.

As an operational satellite providing regular service, Iridium 33’s orbit should have been stable. (Iridium has said that its global service has been only minimally affected.) The same is true of Cosmos 2251, even though it is likely slowly decaying. Stratfor notes this event first and foremost as anomalous — an important part of the intelligence process. We will continue to monitor the situation closely.

2 responses to “U.S., Russia: A Mysterious Satellite Collision

  1. Like two dust motes hitting each other over a football field.

  2. Let’s review. The US recently tested it’s satellite shoot down capability with a ridiculous story that they needed to shoot down a satellite to protect the world from being hit by a falling satellite (infinitesimally remote chance, and since it comes from the military, infinitesimally unlikely that the military would ever give a shit). Now there is an “accidental collision” which would have been predicted for months had it been a true accident – THEY TRACK ALL 18,000 orbiting objects – so they would have seen it coming for months if it were true. So why did this occur? To let the world know that Space Command has gone operational with their shoot down capability and that the United States now claims all of space as a strategic battle-space. This is the shot heard all the way to China…

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