NY Times | Oct 14, 2009
By ERIC DASH
A year after the financial system was brought to its knees, a resurgent JPMorgan Chase reported a second consecutive quarter of surprisingly strong profit on Wednesday, solidifying its position at the pinnacle of American banking.
JPMorgan’s results — $3.6 billion in profit for the third quarter — fanned hopes on Wall Street that the nation’s financial sector was entering a new period of prosperity, despite lingering troubles. The bank’s robust showing, amid tentative signs that its consumer loan losses might soon peak, has set the pace for other big banks that will report results in coming days.
JPMorgan’s profit was powered by its investment banking division, where earnings more than doubled from the period a year earlier because of trading in the fixed-income markets and a flurry of deals. The unit’s results more than offset the bank’s losses on credit card loans and home mortgages, which continued to rise as consumers struggled with a weak economy.
The earnings seemed to light a fire under Wall Street. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 144.80 points, closing above 10,000 for the first time in a year.
Although the recession weighed heavily on its businesses, JPMorgan appeared to be taking advantage of the financial crisis to leapfrog investment banking rivals in the rankings and expand its consumer lending franchise. Meanwhile, it added $2 billion to its consumer credit reserves for future losses, bringing the total amount it has set aside to $31.5 billion.
Net income rose to 82 cents a share, far surpassing analysts’ estimates for the third quarter. The bank reported a profit of $527 million, or 9 cents a share, in the third quarter of 2008.
“The revenue growth was very impressive,” said Anthony Polini, an analyst at Raymond James & Associates. “They’re benefiting from a turn in the economy, and they’re asserting their dominance.”
The results also reflected the broader rebound in once-stymied financial markets, with companies again issuing stock, raising money from bond markets and signing merger deals. After being forced to take huge write-downs on the value of some its assets a year ago, JPMorgan said it booked about a $400 million gain on the sale of mortgage securities and buyout loans.
Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan’s chairman and chief executive, said the earnings reflected growth across several business lines, but he gave only a cautious outlook. “While we are seeing some initial signs of consumer credit stability, we are not yet certain that this trend will continue,” he said in a statement.
Consumer loss rates remain high, but there were upbeat signs in the bank’s numbers. Bank officials said they saw “a little bit of stabilization” in home values, especially for lower price properties and in states like California. And while delinquencies remain high, fewer borrowers were falling behind on mortgages.
Michael J. Cavanagh, the bank’s chief financial officer, called that a “hopeful sign” but stopped short of declaring that heavy losses were over. “We have to watch the economy and see where it heads,” he said in a conference call with reporters.
JPMorgan was the first of the nation’s biggest banks to report third-quarter earnings. Bank of America, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs also release results this week. As one of the first major banks to warn of troubles with subprime mortgages, home equity loans and credit cards, JPMorgan is seen as a bellwether for the financial industry.
Although the housing market and economy remain weak, analysts expect to see a slowdown in consumer loan losses at the biggest banks and for them to start setting aside less money in their reserves. Meanwhile, the troubles are quickly moving to commercial real estate loans, which will place a heavier burden on smaller lenders.
Mr. Dimon still must contend with several problems. His decision last month to replace the two co-heads of the investment banking division with a single leader, James E. Staley, raised concern within the ranks. JPMorgan’s credit card division is unlikely to turn a profit until 2011, and, like most of the industry, its consumer franchise has seen a fall-off in new mortgage lending.
Mr. Dimon also faces obstacles in Washington. He must balance paying bonuses to JPMorgan investment bankers based on blow-out earnings with public furor over Wall Street pay. New regulations on credit cards threaten to lower the profitability of that business, and lenders face other legislative efforts to curb bank fees and derivatives trading.
Despite repaying its $25 billion taxpayer investment in June, JPMorgan is still waiting for the government to sell warrants it was given last year. Their value, now at nearly $2 billion, has risen almost $800 million since rivals like Goldman Sachs cut deals to buy them back this summer, according to Linus Wilson, a finance professor at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette. That could be a windfall for taxpayers but would not affect the bank’s capital.
Even so, JPMorgan is emerging from the crisis with renewed confidence. Its investment bank, which posted a $1.9 billion profit, reported strong trading revenue, though short of the record levels earlier this year when the markets were in constant flux and prices skyrocketed.
The bank’s consumer businesses are still bleeding from bad loans. Its mortgage and consumer banking operations posted a narrow $7 million profit, while its credit card division lost $700 million in the quarter. By next year, charge-offs could reach 11 percent of loan balances.
“You are seeing the underlying earnings power is there, albeit challenged by the need in this quarter to add to reserves,” Mr. Cavanagh said. “Stabilization is just the first phase; we need losses to return to more normalized levels.”